How Scorely works out the probability of each result

Scorely does not guess results: it turns published odds into probabilities, strips out the bookmaker margin and shows the figure next to the community vote. This page explains the formula with an example and where every number comes from.

Last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The formula

The implied probability of decimal odds is 1 / odds. Odds of 2.00 mean 50%.

Bookmakers build in a margin, so the probabilities of home, draw and away add up to more than 100%. The excess is the bookmaker margin.

To remove it we divide each probability by the sum of all of them (proportional normalisation). The result adds up to exactly 100%: that is the no-margin probability we show.

This edition shows odds in American (moneyline) format; they are converted to decimal before the calculation.

Worked example

Example odds for one game: home 2.10 · draw 3.40 · away 3.60.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	No margin
Home	2.10	0.4762	45.4%
Draw	3.40	0.2941	28.1%
Away	3.60	0.2778	26.5%
Σ		1.0481	100%

1 / odds adds up to 1.0481, so the bookmaker margin is 4.8%. Dividing each value by 1.0481 leaves the home side as market favourite, but with less than half of the chances.

With a real game from this edition

Toronto FC vs CF Montréal (MLS, Saturday, October 10, 2026, 1:00 PM ET). 1X2 odds published when this page was generated:

Result	Odds	1 / odds	No margin
Toronto FC	1.91	0.5236	48.3%
Draw	3.75	0.2667	24.6%
CF Montréal	3.40	0.2941	27.1%
Σ		1.0843	100%

Odds move until kick-off; the match page always shows the latest version. Toronto FC vs CF Montréal

What it means and what it does not

The no-margin probability sums up what the market is pricing in at that moment. It is not our own forecast and it is not betting advice.
The "market favourite" is the outcome with the highest probability. Being favourite does not mean it will happen: at 45%, it loses or draws more than half of the time.
If a game has no published odds, we calculate nothing and never fill the gap with estimates.

Community and tipsters

The community 1X2 vote comes from registered users choosing an outcome on the match page. It is shown as it is, with no weighting.

Tipsters post 1X2 or over/under 2.5 goals picks with odds and a number of units. An automatic process settles them every 5 minutes against ESPN's official result: win, loss, or void if the game is postponed or cancelled.

The tipster ranking sorts by profit in units (a win adds units × (odds − 1); a loss takes off the units staked) and then by number of wins. A tipster profile goes into the sitemap only once it has at least 5 settled picks.

How often the data is updated

Scores of games in progress: every 30 seconds.
Fixtures for the current month: every 10 minutes; next month, every hour.
Standings: every hour.
Match page (line-ups, events and stats): every 30 seconds in play, every 10 minutes before kick-off and every 12 hours after full time.
Official videos: the busiest channels are read every 20 minutes; the rest, every hour.

Calculators

Our tools (odds converter, implied probability, accumulator/parlay and arbitrage calculators) use the same formulas and run in your browser.

Data sources

ESPN: scores, fixtures, standings, line-ups, match events (goals and cards), team and player stats, and the odds ESPN publishes for each game.
Sportmonks: odds from several bookmakers for the Scottish Premiership and the Danish Superliga.
TheSportsDB: stadium data and photos.
Official YouTube channels of leagues, clubs and federations: videos play in the official player inside Scorely.
The Scorely community: 1X2 votes from registered users and tipster picks, settled against the official result.

Responsible gambling

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