Liverpool vs. Villarreal preview: Champions League clash at Anfield

Liverpool will host Villarreal at Anfield in the UEFA Champions League on October 20, with kickoff set for 15:00 Eastern. Liverpool arrives with 6 points in the standings, while Villarreal has 3 points. Liverpool's record in the competition is 2-0-0, and the margin-free probability gives Liverpool 65%, Villarreal 16% and a draw 19%. Questions over Wirtz and Szoboszlai, reported by Rousing The Kop, add uncertainty to the Liverpool lineup before kickoff.

When and where will Liverpool face Villarreal?

Liverpool will play Villarreal at Anfield in the city of Liverpool on October 20. Kickoff is 15:00 Eastern, and the UEFA Champions League fixture has not been played yet.

Liverpool sits on 6 points with 2 wins, while Villarreal has 3 points and 1 win. According to GOAL, Liverpool is 5th in the standings and Villarreal 14th, so the home side can protect a place among the leaders while Villarreal looks to climb. In its last 5 matches, Liverpool has 4 wins, while Villarreal has 3 wins and 1 draw.

What is the recent form of Liverpool and Villarreal?

Liverpool beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 and AFC Bournemouth 1-0, then lost 3-0 to Manchester City. Liverpool answered by beating LASK Linz 6-3 and Brentford 2-1.

Villarreal beat Málaga 3-1 and Levante 3-1, lost 1-0 to Real Madrid, beat Napoli 3-1 and drew 0-0 with Elche. Its only defeat in that stretch came against Real Madrid, while Liverpool's only defeat came against Manchester City. Liverpool's most recent result is the 2-1 win over Brentford, and Villarreal's most recent is the 0-0 draw with Elche.

How do the season numbers compare?

Liverpool has scored 8 goals and has 8 assists, with 4 goals against and a goal difference of 4. Villarreal has 5 goals, 3 assists, 4 goals against and a goal difference of 1. The assists column shows the widest split: 8 for Liverpool against 3 for Villarreal.

Both sides have conceded 4, so the difference between them comes from attack. The standings reflect that, with Liverpool fifth and Villarreal 14th. The clubs also share some history. Liverpool won their 2022 semi-final tie against Villarreal 5-2 on aggregate.

Who could miss out or be rested for Liverpool?

Rousing The Kop reports that Szoboszlai is injured and that Liverpool needs a replacement, with McConnell expected to take his place against Villarreal. The outlet also says Wirtz is due to be replaced because of injury risk.

It adds that Wirtz played 90 minutes against LASK and Brentford and needs rest, and that he ran over 25km in those games. GOAL differs: its projected lineup includes Wirtz and reports no injuries for Liverpool. Villarreal's projected lineup includes Moleiro and Moreno, per GOAL.

What do the probabilities say about the match?

The margin-free probability gives Liverpool 65% to win at Anfield, Villarreal 16% and a draw 19%. These figures describe the market's estimate of the outcome and are not a recommendation.

Villarreal faces a defensive question, since GOAL says it has not kept a clean sheet in 13 Champions League matches. GOAL adds that its last 33 matches in the competition include 3 shutouts. Liverpool's top scorer so far is Barcola, with 3 goals in 2 matches, while Mouriño has 2 goals in 2 matches for Villarreal.

The numbers at Scorely

Market-implied probability with the bookmaker margin (4.8%) removed, calculated by Scorely.

Data source: ESPN; calculation and table by Scorely.