Napoli host Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League on Oct. 20 with Allegri under pressure

Napoli welcome Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Oct. 20, with kickoff set for 15:00 Eastern time. In the standings, Napoli sit on 0 points with a 0-0-2 record, while Bodo/Glimt come in with 3 points and a 1-0-1 record. Yahoo Sports notes that Napoli have lost two consecutive games in all competitions, and the pressure on manager Allegri is growing. GOAL reports that Allegri says the team concedes too many goals. The data feed gives Napoli a 59% chance of winning.

When and where is Napoli vs. Bodo/Glimt?

Napoli host Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League on Oct. 20 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli. The schedule lists kickoff at 15:00 in New York, and the soccer match has not yet been played.

Both clubs need points. Napoli sit at 0 points in the standings, with 0 wins and 2 losses, while Bodo/Glimt have 3 points, with 1 win and 1 loss. Napoli arrive on a rough run: on Oct. 13 they lost 3-1 to Villarreal, and on Oct. 17 they fell 1-0 to Venezia. On Oct. 14 Bodo/Glimt beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0, and on Oct. 17 they beat Hamarkameratene 2-0. Napoli have conceded 4 goals so far, and Bodo/Glimt have conceded 5. According to GOAL, this Champions League match is critical for Napoli's progress in the competition.

How have Napoli and Bodo/Glimt played recently?

Napoli beat Bologna 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Fiorentina in September, then beat Frosinone 3-0 early in October. Napoli then lost 3-1 to Villarreal and 1-0 to Venezia, and Yahoo Sports reports the team has lost two consecutive games in all competitions. In the Champions League, Napoli are 0-0-2 with 1 total goal and 4 goals against, and Amir Rrahmani leads the squad with 1 goal.

Bodo/Glimt beat Sandefjord 3-2 and lost 2-1 to SK Brann in September, then beat Kristiansund BK 3-1, Borussia Dortmund 1-0 and Hamarkameratene 2-0 in October. Napoli's latest results were defeats, while Bodo/Glimt come in off wins over Dortmund and Hamarkameratene. Their Champions League record is 1-0-1, with Fredrik Sjøvold leading the team with 1 goal and goalkeeper Nikita Haykin making 9 saves.

Which players could decide the match?

For Napoli, Amir Rrahmani is the goals leader with 1 goal in 2 matches and also has 125 accurate passes. Rasmus Højlund has 4 total shots, and Vanja Milinkovic-Savic has 4 saves.

For Bodo/Glimt, Fredrik Sjøvold has 1 goal in 2 matches and 86 accurate passes, Sondre Auklend has 1 assist in 2 matches, Andreas Helmersen has 4 total shots and goalkeeper Nikita Haykin has 9 saves. According to GOAL, Bodo/Glimt defend well and counter-attack effectively.

What does Allegri say about Napoli's defense?

According to GOAL, Napoli manager Allegri says his team concedes too many goals and that Napoli must address shortcomings in matches. GOAL also reports that Allegri stresses concentration for the upcoming game and emphasizes technique and precision. GOAL adds that Allegri mentioned the flu but feels better.

The numbers back up the concern. Napoli have scored 1 goal and have 4 goals against, for a goal difference of -3. Bodo/Glimt have 1 goal scored, 5 goals against and a goal difference of -4.

What does the win probability say, and what is at stake for Allegri?

The data feed puts the probability of a Napoli win at 59%, a Bodo/Glimt win at 19% and a draw at 22%. These figures are shown without the margin and describe likelihood, not a recommendation.

Results have been elusive for Napoli, according to GOAL, and Yahoo Sports reports that De Laurentiis is concerned about Allegri's position. Yahoo Sports also says Tudor and Italiano are possible replacements, and that the coming games could decide Allegri's future. GOAL adds that Napoli's next match after Bodo/Glimt is against Roma.

The numbers at Scorely

Market-implied probability with the bookmaker margin (4.9%) removed, calculated by Scorely.

Data source: ESPN; calculation and table by Scorely.